"In my experience, the last week of September and 1st week of October would be the Yellowstone/Teton prime time for a normal year. Earlier than the last week of September can still be good in the higher elevations.
Dry weather in the months before foliage season will usually cause the foliage to turn a bit early, but not by a lot. More important, the season of worthwhile color will be shortened, and maybe by quite a bit - very hard to predict.
Yellowstone is not the place to see fall color - the overwhelming majority of trees in Yellowstone are evergreens. You go to Yellowstone for animals and thermal features, and neither will be affected much by a dry year. Some animals that move to higher elevations in the summer (bear, elk) may return to lower elevations earlier than usual for water, which would make them more visible.
On the other hand, the Tetons are always good. The advantage in Jackson Hole is the Snake River - in a dry year, the river still delivers water to the trees on either side, and that's where most of the fall color is. You will also find animals in abundance in Jackson Hole, too." - random guy on tripadvisor"But I've seen years when the first cold front moves in mid September the parks are covered in snow with highs in the 30's. " another random guy on flickr
"Yellowstone is alittle different. The fall color is confinded mostly to Lamar Valley in the northern part of th park. " same flickr dude
'I usually leave the parks around Sept 25 and can miss the height of the fall colors which are really in the first week of October. But the weather again. The cottonwood tress along the Snake River turn earlier then aspens in the other parts of the park. " - flickr dude
farmer's almanac peak foliage dates: "Wyoming: Oct. 5-14" and "Montana: (Central) Sept. 28-Oct. 9; (Western) Oct. 5-21"
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